Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Castlecliff South-Mosston-Balgownie-Airport

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Castlecliff South-Mosston-Balgownie-Airport indicate a 3.1% decrease in population under working age, a 44.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Castlecliff South-Mosston-Balgownie-Airport - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42449.31907.21906.9-55
5 to 92057.82188.21927.0-13
10 to 141957.42168.21846.7-11
15 to 192188.31796.81615.9-57
20 to 241847.01244.71375.0-46
25 to 291545.91304.91415.1-14
30 to 341264.81535.81505.4+24
35 to 391144.31435.41515.5+37
40 to 441545.81475.61696.1+15
45 to 491555.91365.11676.1+13
50 to 541706.41325.01595.8-11
55 to 591847.01475.61535.6-31
60 to 641355.11515.71485.4+12
65 to 691254.71495.61354.9+10
70 to 74953.61455.51344.9+39
75 to 79752.81023.91214.4+47
80 to 84542.0913.41144.2+60
85 and over501.9913.41415.1+91
Total persons2,637100.02,644100.02,745100.0+109

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 141 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 114 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 121 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 134 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 135 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 148 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 153 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 159 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 167 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 169 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 151 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 150 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 141 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 137 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 161 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 184 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 192 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 190 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 91 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 91 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 102 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 145 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 149 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 151 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 147 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 132 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 136 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 147 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 143 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 153 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 130 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 124 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 179 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 216 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 218 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 190 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 50 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 54 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 75 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 95 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 125 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 135 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 184 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 170 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 155 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 154 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 114 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 126 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 154 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 184 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 218 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 195 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 205 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 244
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 50 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 23 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 19 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: -10 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -14 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -4 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 27 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 32 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 21 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 8 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: -4 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 13 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -18 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: -33 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -25 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 41 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 37 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 27 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 49 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 24 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 16 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -37 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -38 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -19 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -7 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 29 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 28 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -25 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -59 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -39 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 22 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 12 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -55
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Castlecliff South-Mosston-Balgownie-Airport was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 9.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 49 and account for 5.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 218 persons.

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