Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Fordell-Kakatahi-Marybank-Gordon Park

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Fordell-Kakatahi-Marybank-Gordon Park indicate a 17.5% increase in population under working age, a 74.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Fordell-Kakatahi-Marybank-Gordon Park - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41505.01926.01925.8+42
5 to 91816.02136.72106.4+29
10 to 141906.42076.52106.4+20
15 to 192046.81675.21875.7-17
20 to 241404.71394.41685.1+28
25 to 291404.71404.41554.7+15
30 to 341565.21635.11705.2+13
35 to 391545.11474.61534.7-1
40 to 442247.51906.01986.0-26
45 to 492819.42126.72186.6-63
50 to 5431110.42347.32367.2-75
55 to 592809.32457.72307.0-50
60 to 641916.42467.72146.5+22
65 to 691806.02407.52076.3+27
70 to 741063.51966.11855.6+79
75 to 79501.71264.01624.9+112
80 to 84391.3862.71223.7+82
85 and over200.7431.4752.3+55
Total persons2,998100.03,186100.03,291100.0+293

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 75 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 122 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 162 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 185 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 207 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 214 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 230 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 236 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 218 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 198 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 153 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 170 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 155 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 168 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 187 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 210 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 210 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 192 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 43 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 86 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 126 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 196 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 240 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 246 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 245 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 234 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 212 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 190 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 147 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 163 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 140 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 139 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 167 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 207 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 213 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 192 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 20 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 39 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 50 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 106 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 180 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 191 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 280 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 311 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 281 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 224 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 154 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 156 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 140 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 140 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 204 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 190 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 181 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 150
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 31 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 36 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 36 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: -11 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -34 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -32 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -15 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 7 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 15 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 29 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: 20 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 3 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -3 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 24 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 46 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 77 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 90 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 60 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 55 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -35 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -76 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -69 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -35 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -8 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 7 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 0 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -1 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -37 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 17 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 32 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: 42
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Fordell-Kakatahi-Marybank-Gordon Park was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 10.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 90 and account for 6.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 246 persons.

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