Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Gonville

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Gonville indicate a 9.2% decrease in population under working age, a 22.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 5.6% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gonville - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44058.63307.13227.1-83
5 to 93517.43387.33347.3-17
10 to 143908.33738.13658.0-25
15 to 193878.23698.03257.1-63
20 to 242775.92685.82565.6-20
25 to 292605.52405.22405.3-20
30 to 342675.72555.52565.6-12
35 to 392595.52525.52535.5-6
40 to 442795.92665.82655.8-14
45 to 493196.82745.92726.0-47
50 to 543056.52585.62565.6-50
55 to 592545.42435.32385.2-16
60 to 642475.22695.82535.5+6
65 to 692204.72685.82515.5+31
70 to 741713.62254.92264.9+55
75 to 791292.71743.81944.3+65
80 to 841032.21182.61483.2+45
85 and over952.0942.01142.5+19
Total persons4,719100.04,616100.04,568100.0-152

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 114 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 148 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 194 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 226 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 251 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 253 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 238 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 256 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 272 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 265 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 253 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 256 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 240 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 256 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 325 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 365 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 334 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 322 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 94 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 118 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 174 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 225 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 268 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 269 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 243 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 258 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 274 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 266 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 252 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 255 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 240 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 268 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 369 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 373 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 338 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 330 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 95 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 103 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 129 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 171 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 220 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 247 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 254 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 305 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 319 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 279 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 259 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 267 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 260 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 277 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 387 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 390 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 351 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 405
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 21 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 31 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 20 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -17 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -17 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -5 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: -3 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: -2 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: -1 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -1 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -11 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -45 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: -8 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -4 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: -7 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: -2 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 14 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 45 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 54 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 48 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 23 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -11 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -47 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -45 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -13 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -7 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: -12 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -20 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -9 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -18 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -18 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -13 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -75
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Gonville was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 54 and account for 4.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 373 persons.

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