Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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St Johns Hill-Otamatea

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for St Johns Hill-Otamatea indicate a 13.1% decrease in population under working age, a 23.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 4.9% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
St Johns Hill-Otamatea - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41604.61494.21494.1-11
5 to 91915.51634.61654.6-25
10 to 142216.31855.21905.2-31
15 to 192096.01684.71594.4-50
20 to 24792.31113.1982.7+19
25 to 29852.51012.8952.6+9
30 to 341263.61223.41213.3-5
35 to 391343.91444.01514.2+17
40 to 441985.71835.11885.2-9
45 to 492266.52065.82095.7-17
50 to 542617.52186.12236.1-38
55 to 592707.82416.82396.6-31
60 to 642527.22557.22516.9-1
65 to 692406.92697.62557.0+15
70 to 742176.22647.42587.1+41
75 to 791795.22386.72516.9+72
80 to 841634.72166.12486.8+85
85 and over2677.73269.238610.6+119
Total persons3,479100.03,557100.03,636100.0+157

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 386 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 248 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 251 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 258 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 255 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 251 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 239 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 223 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 209 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 188 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 151 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 121 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 95 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 98 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 159 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 190 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 165 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 149 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 326 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 216 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 238 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 264 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 269 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 255 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 241 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 218 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 206 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 183 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 144 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 122 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 101 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 111 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 168 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 185 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 163 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 149 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 267 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 163 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 179 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 217 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 240 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 252 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 270 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 261 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 226 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 198 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 134 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 126 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 85 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 79 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 209 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 221 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 191 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 160
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 60 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 32 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 14 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: -5 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -14 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -4 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -2 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 2 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 7 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: -2 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -6 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -13 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -8 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 2 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 59 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 53 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 58 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 47 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 29 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 3 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -29 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -43 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -20 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -15 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 9 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: -4 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 15 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 32 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -41 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -36 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -28 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -11
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in St Johns Hill-Otamatea was ages 55 to 59, which accounted for 7.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 85 and over, which is expected to increase by 59 and account for 9.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 85 and over years, with a total of 326 persons.

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