Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Tawhero

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Tawhero indicate a 5.8% decrease in population under working age, a 9.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Tawhero - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42357.32046.12086.1-27
5 to 91966.12146.42146.3+18
10 to 142618.12347.02336.8-28
15 to 192547.92326.92046.0-50
20 to 242116.51935.71885.5-22
25 to 291765.42377.02276.6+51
30 to 341574.92407.12376.9+80
35 to 391695.22276.72397.0+70
40 to 441946.01955.82266.6+31
45 to 492066.41795.32196.4+14
50 to 542156.71815.42025.9-13
55 to 591705.31855.51815.3+11
60 to 641865.81915.71745.1-13
65 to 691805.61915.71725.0-8
70 to 741314.11554.61624.7+31
75 to 791243.91364.01414.1+17
80 to 84892.71003.01113.3+23
85 and over752.3742.2822.4+7
Total persons3,229100.03,368100.03,421100.0+192

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 82 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 111 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 141 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 162 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 172 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 174 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 181 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 202 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 219 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 226 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 239 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 237 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 227 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 188 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 204 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 233 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 214 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 208 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 74 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 100 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 136 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 155 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 191 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 191 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 185 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 181 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 179 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 195 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 227 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 240 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 237 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 193 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 232 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 234 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 214 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 204 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 75 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 89 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 124 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 131 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 180 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 186 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 170 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 215 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 206 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 194 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 169 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 157 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 176 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 211 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 254 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 261 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 196 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 235
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 7 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -19 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -17 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -4 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 22 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 40 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 30 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 12 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: -3 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -10 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -5 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -28 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: -1 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 4 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: -2 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 12 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 12 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 24 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 11 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 4 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 15 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -35 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -27 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: 1 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 57 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 83 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 62 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -18 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -21 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -26 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 18 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -31
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Tawhero was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 83 and account for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 240 persons.

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