Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Whanganui East-Kowhai Park-Wembley Park

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Whanganui East-Kowhai Park-Wembley Park indicate a 9.8% decrease in population under working age, a 25.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 8.3% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Whanganui East-Kowhai Park-Wembley Park - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44878.23996.83976.8-90
5 to 94397.44237.24257.3-14
10 to 144237.13956.74006.8-23
15 to 193495.83986.83455.9-4
20 to 243545.92874.92935.0-61
25 to 292944.92945.02985.1+4
30 to 342914.92724.62894.9-2
35 to 393225.42824.82764.7-45
40 to 443726.22764.72784.7-94
45 to 493626.12754.72704.6-92
50 to 544146.93355.73005.1-113
55 to 593485.83676.33135.3-35
60 to 643215.43586.13215.50
65 to 692734.63746.43496.0+76
70 to 742554.33355.73616.2+105
75 to 792333.93055.23435.8+110
80 to 842063.52364.03015.1+95
85 and over2243.82454.23015.1+76
Total persons5,968100.05,855100.05,859100.0-108

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 301 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 301 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 343 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 361 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 349 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 321 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 313 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 300 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 270 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 278 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 276 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 289 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 298 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 293 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 345 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 400 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 425 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 397 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 245 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 236 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 305 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 335 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 374 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 358 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 367 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 335 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 275 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 276 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 282 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 272 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 294 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 287 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 398 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 395 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 423 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 399 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 224 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 206 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 233 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 255 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 273 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 321 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 348 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 414 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 362 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 372 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 322 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 291 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 294 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 354 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 349 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 423 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 439 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 487
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 56 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 65 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 38 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 25 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -25 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -37 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -55 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: -34 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: -5 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 2 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: -6 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 18 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 4 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -54 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 2 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: -2 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 20 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 30 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 72 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 80 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 101 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 37 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 20 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -79 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -87 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -96 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -40 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: -19 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 0 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -67 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: 49 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -29 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -17 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -89
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Whanganui East-Kowhai Park-Wembley Park was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 65 to 69, which is expected to increase by 101 and account for 6.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 423 persons.

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