Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Whanganui West-Spriggens Park-College Estate

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Whanganui West-Spriggens Park-College Estate indicate a 27.3% increase in population under working age, a 43.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 12.9% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Whanganui West-Spriggens Park-College Estate - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4965.41126.11146.0+18
5 to 91066.01327.21316.9+26
10 to 141065.91488.01517.9+45
15 to 191508.41437.71558.2+5
20 to 241106.2824.41005.3-10
25 to 29975.4693.7824.3-15
30 to 341025.7884.7834.4-19
35 to 391015.71226.61135.9+12
40 to 44995.51116.01085.7+9
45 to 49915.11035.61065.6+14
50 to 541417.9945.11075.6-34
55 to 591317.4914.9995.2-32
60 to 641327.41025.51035.4-29
65 to 69804.51236.6985.1+17
70 to 74714.01156.2985.2+27
75 to 79703.91005.4934.9+23
80 to 84452.5603.2874.6+43
85 and over502.8542.9713.7+21
Total persons1,778100.01,849100.01,897100.0+119

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 71 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 87 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 93 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 98 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 98 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 103 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 99 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 107 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 106 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 108 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 113 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 83 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 82 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 100 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 155 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 151 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 131 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 114 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 54 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 60 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 100 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 115 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 123 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 102 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 91 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 94 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 103 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 111 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 122 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 88 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 69 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 82 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 143 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 148 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 132 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 112 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 50 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 45 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 70 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 71 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 80 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 132 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 131 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 141 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 91 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 99 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 101 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 102 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 97 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 110 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 150 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 106 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 106 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 96
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 17 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 27 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: -7 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: -17 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -25 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: 1 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 13 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 3 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: -4 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: -10 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: -5 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 13 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 18 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 3 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: -1 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 2 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 4 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 15 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 30 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 44 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 42 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: -30 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: -41 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -47 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: 11 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: 13 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 22 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: -14 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: -28 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -28 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -7 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 42 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 26 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: 16
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Whanganui West-Spriggens Park-College Estate was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 44 and account for 6.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 148 persons.

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