Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Castlecliff North

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Castlecliff North will increase by an average of 5 dwellings per annum to 1,118 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Whanganui District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • Longbeach Drive residual - 30 dwellings (2014 - 2043)
  • Low infill development (3-4 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 1,118 2042 Total dwellings: 1,113 2041 Total dwellings: 1,108 2040 Total dwellings: 1,103 2039 Total dwellings: 1,098 2038 Total dwellings: 1,093 2037 Total dwellings: 1,088 2036 Total dwellings: 1,083 2035 Total dwellings: 1,078 2034 Total dwellings: 1,073 2033 Total dwellings: 1,068 2032 Total dwellings: 1,063 2031 Total dwellings: 1,058 2030 Total dwellings: 1,053 2029 Total dwellings: 1,048 2028 Total dwellings: 1,043 2027 Total dwellings: 1,038 2026 Total dwellings: 1,033 2025 Total dwellings: 1,028 2024 Total dwellings: 1,023 2023 Total dwellings: 1,018 2022 Total dwellings: 1,013 2021 Total dwellings: 1,008 2020 Total dwellings: 1,003 2019 Total dwellings: 998 2018 Total dwellings: 993 2017 Total dwellings: 988 2016 Total dwellings: 983 2015 Total dwellings: 978 2014 Total dwellings: 974 2043 Total dwellings: 1,118 2042 Total dwellings: 1,113 2041 Total dwellings: 1,108 2040 Total dwellings: 1,103 2039 Total dwellings: 1,098 2038 Total dwellings: 1,093 2037 Total dwellings: 1,088 2036 Total dwellings: 1,083 2035 Total dwellings: 1,078 2034 Total dwellings: 1,073 2033 Total dwellings: 1,068 2032 Total dwellings: 1,063 2031 Total dwellings: 1,058 2030 Total dwellings: 1,053 2029 Total dwellings: 1,048 2028 Total dwellings: 1,043 2027 Total dwellings: 1,038 2026 Total dwellings: 1,033 2025 Total dwellings: 1,028 2024 Total dwellings: 1,023 2023 Total dwellings: 1,018 2022 Total dwellings: 1,013 2021 Total dwellings: 1,008 2020 Total dwellings: 1,003 2019 Total dwellings: 998 2018 Total dwellings: 993 2017 Total dwellings: 988 2016 Total dwellings: 983 2015 Total dwellings: 978 2014 Total dwellings: 974 2043 Forecast development: 5 2042 Forecast development: 5 2041 Forecast development: 5 2040 Forecast development: 5 2039 Forecast development: 5 2038 Forecast development: 5 2037 Forecast development: 5 2036 Forecast development: 5 2035 Forecast development: 5 2034 Forecast development: 5 2033 Forecast development: 5 2032 Forecast development: 5 2031 Forecast development: 5 2030 Forecast development: 5 2029 Forecast development: 5 2028 Forecast development: 5 2027 Forecast development: 5 2026 Forecast development: 5 2025 Forecast development: 5 2024 Forecast development: 5 2023 Forecast development: 5 2022 Forecast development: 5 2021 Forecast development: 5 2020 Forecast development: 5 2019 Forecast development: 5 2018 Forecast development: 5 2017 Forecast development: 5 2016 Forecast development: 5 2015 Forecast development: 4 2014 Forecast development: 4
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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