Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
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Tawhero

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Tawhero will increase by an average of 7 dwellings per annum to 1,547 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Whanganui District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • Poynter Place - 11 dwellings (2014 - 2016)
  • Kelsi Street and Attrill Place extensions - 13 dwellings (2014 - 2018)
  • Fitzherbert Ave extension east - 16 dwellings (2014 - 2021)
  • Cracroft Drive - 50 dwellings (2018 - 2039)
  • Low infill development (3-4 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 1,547 2042 Total dwellings: 1,543 2041 Total dwellings: 1,539 2040 Total dwellings: 1,535 2039 Total dwellings: 1,531 2038 Total dwellings: 1,526 2037 Total dwellings: 1,520 2036 Total dwellings: 1,514 2035 Total dwellings: 1,508 2034 Total dwellings: 1,502 2033 Total dwellings: 1,496 2032 Total dwellings: 1,490 2031 Total dwellings: 1,484 2030 Total dwellings: 1,478 2029 Total dwellings: 1,471 2028 Total dwellings: 1,464 2027 Total dwellings: 1,457 2026 Total dwellings: 1,450 2025 Total dwellings: 1,443 2024 Total dwellings: 1,436 2023 Total dwellings: 1,429 2022 Total dwellings: 1,422 2021 Total dwellings: 1,415 2020 Total dwellings: 1,407 2019 Total dwellings: 1,399 2018 Total dwellings: 1,393 2017 Total dwellings: 1,385 2016 Total dwellings: 1,378 2015 Total dwellings: 1,366 2014 Total dwellings: 1,353 2043 Total dwellings: 1,547 2042 Total dwellings: 1,543 2041 Total dwellings: 1,539 2040 Total dwellings: 1,535 2039 Total dwellings: 1,531 2038 Total dwellings: 1,526 2037 Total dwellings: 1,520 2036 Total dwellings: 1,514 2035 Total dwellings: 1,508 2034 Total dwellings: 1,502 2033 Total dwellings: 1,496 2032 Total dwellings: 1,490 2031 Total dwellings: 1,484 2030 Total dwellings: 1,478 2029 Total dwellings: 1,471 2028 Total dwellings: 1,464 2027 Total dwellings: 1,457 2026 Total dwellings: 1,450 2025 Total dwellings: 1,443 2024 Total dwellings: 1,436 2023 Total dwellings: 1,429 2022 Total dwellings: 1,422 2021 Total dwellings: 1,415 2020 Total dwellings: 1,407 2019 Total dwellings: 1,399 2018 Total dwellings: 1,393 2017 Total dwellings: 1,385 2016 Total dwellings: 1,378 2015 Total dwellings: 1,366 2014 Total dwellings: 1,353 2043 Forecast development: 4 2042 Forecast development: 4 2041 Forecast development: 4 2040 Forecast development: 4 2039 Forecast development: 5 2038 Forecast development: 6 2037 Forecast development: 6 2036 Forecast development: 6 2035 Forecast development: 6 2034 Forecast development: 6 2033 Forecast development: 6 2032 Forecast development: 6 2031 Forecast development: 6 2030 Forecast development: 7 2029 Forecast development: 7 2028 Forecast development: 7 2027 Forecast development: 7 2026 Forecast development: 7 2025 Forecast development: 7 2024 Forecast development: 7 2023 Forecast development: 7 2022 Forecast development: 7 2021 Forecast development: 8 2020 Forecast development: 8 2019 Forecast development: 6 2018 Forecast development: 8 2017 Forecast development: 7 2016 Forecast development: 12 2015 Forecast development: 13 2014 Forecast development: 10
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
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